Correlation of Population SARS-CoV-2 Cycle Threshold Values to Local Disease Dynamics: Exploratory Observational Study

Background Despite the limitations in use of cycle threshold (CT) values for individual patient care, population distributions CT may be useful indicators local outbreaks. Objective We aimed to conduct an exploratory analysis potential correlations between distribution and COVID-19 dynamics, which were operationalized as percent positivity, transmission rate (Rt), hospitalization count. Methods In total, 148,410 specimens collected September 15, 2020, January 11, 2021, from greater El Paso area processed Dascena Laboratory. The daily median value, Rt, count hospitalizations, change rolling averages these features plotted over time. Two-way scatterplots linear regression used evaluate possible associations outbreak measures. Cross-correlation plots determine whether a time delay existed changes measures community disease dynamics. Results Daily negatively correlated with Rt (P<.001), counts (with 33-day delay; P<.001), positivity among testing samples (P<.001). visual trends suggesting delays measures, statistically significant was only detected Conclusions This study adds literature by analyzing entire geographical contextualizing results other research investigating values.